Seeing into the Future: A Short History of Prediction by Martin van Creveld (Eng

Description: Seeing into the Future by Martin van Creveld If there is anything that distinguishes us from animals, it is our ability to understand that such a thing as the future exists and our willingness to try and look into it FORMAT Hardcover LANGUAGE English CONDITION Brand New Publisher Description If there is anything that distinguishes us from animals, it is our ability to understand that such a thing as the future exists and our willingness to try and look into itBut how have people through the ages gone about making predictions? What were their underlying assumptions, and what methods did they use? Have increased computer power and the newest algorithms improved our success in anticipating the future, or are we still only as good (or as bad) at it as our ancestors?From the ancients watching the flight of birds to the murky activities of Google and Facebook today, Seeing into the Future provides vital insight into the past, present, and - of course - future of prediction. Author Biography Martin van Creveld is Professor Emeritus at the Hebrew University, Jerusalem, and the author of many books including Conscience: A Biography (Reaktion, 2015), Wargames: From Gladiators to Gigabytes (2013) and The Privileged Sex (2013). Table of Contents Part I: A Mysterious Journey1 A Villain of a Magician2 In the Name of the Lord3 Oracles, Pythias and Sibyls4 A Dream to Remember5 Consulting the DeadPart II: Be Sober and Reasonable6 Searching the Heavens7 Clear and Manifest8 On Birds, Livers and Sacrifices9 The Magic of Numbers10 Decoding the BiblePart III: Enter Modernity11 From Patterns to Cycles12 With Hegel on the Brain13 Ask, and Youll Be Answered14 The Most Powerful Tools15 War Games Here, War Games TherePart IV: The Lord of the Universe16 Looking Backward17 Why is Prediction So Difficult?18 Is Our Game Improving?19 A World Without Uncertainty?ReferencesFurther ReadingAcknowledgements Review "What will the weather be like tomorrow, next week, next year? Will there be another war, famine, global pandemic? Will the stock market rise or fall? In Seeing into the Future, military historian and theorist Martin van Creveld provides an overview of some of the myriad methods humans have devised over the millennia to foretell what is to come, from the ancients use of prophecy and astrology to todays mathematical algorithms. In addition to delving into when, where, why, and how those techniques originated, he discusses such questions as why prediction is so difficult, whether modern humans are any better at making predictions than our ancestors were, and whether knowing the future is a good thing." * Physics Today *"Van Creveld summarizes this book by considering just how accurate these models can be, and indeed how accurate they should be. Any real ability to foresee the future is, he suggests, likely to be just as dangerous as past rulers thought they would be when they sentenced prophets and mystics to the flames or the axe! . . . This is an interesting book on a topic which we have all pondered at some time, and provides a great deal of food for thought." * Magonia Review of Books *"Creveld covers a broad range, from tribal shamans to Greek sibyls, Israeli prophets, the Prophet Muhammed, Hildegard of Bingen, Nostradamus, and contemporary mediums. In addition, Creveld describes such systematic approaches to prediction as omens, numerology, and the Bible and looks at the contemporary use of mathematical models, artificial intelligence, war games, algorithms, and the Delphi method, which solicits predictions from a number of people, all using their preferred methods for assessing the future. . . . Recommended." * Choice *"Crevelds new book, Seeing into the Future, examines the principal methods that have been used for looking into the future throughout history. . . . Crevelds original emphasis on the historical methods of prediction enriches previous scholarship. The book explores a number of predictive methods prevailing over time: speculation, deduction, extrapolation, polling, and modelling. . . . Crevelds historical overview could have modified Abraham Lincolns aphorism: the best way to predict your future is to engineer it." * Technology and Culture Journal *"Martin van Crevelds Seeing into the Future is a widely informed and deeply thoughtful examination of a critical area of human concern. Anyone seeking insight into the futurology and forecasting, with its manifold involvements in religion, sociology, science, and practical affairs will profit from this instructive and insightful work." -- Nicholas Rescher, distinguished professor of philosophy, University of Pittsburgh Review Quote "What will the weather be like tomorrow, next week, next year? Will there be another war, famine, global pandemic? Will the stock market rise or fall? In Seeing into the Future , military historian and theorist Martin van Creveld provides an overview of some of the myriad methods humans have devised over the millennia to foretell what is to come, from the ancients use of prophecy and astrology to todays mathematical algorithms. In addition to delving into when, where, why, and how those techniques originated, he discusses such questions as why prediction is so difficult, whether modern humans are any better at making predictions than our ancestors were, and whether knowing the future is a good thing." Details ISBN1789142296 Pages 224 Publisher Reaktion Books Year 2020 ISBN-10 1789142296 ISBN-13 9781789142297 Format Hardcover Imprint Reaktion Books Subtitle A Short History of Prediction Place of Publication London Country of Publication United Kingdom Short Title Seeing into the Future Language English Publication Date 2020-08-10 UK Release Date 2020-08-10 NZ Release Date 2020-08-10 Author Martin van Creveld DEWEY 003.209 Audience General AU Release Date 2020-09-30 We've got this At The Nile, if you're looking for it, we've got it. With fast shipping, low prices, friendly service and well over a million items - you're bound to find what you want, at a price you'll love! TheNile_Item_ID:129317972;

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